Description
The Arctic, once a region characterized by peaceful collaboration on scientific research, has become a theater of major geopolitical significance. As the polar ice melts, new opportunities and challenges arise. Shipping routes previously untraversable are now clearing, offering the potential for faster and more cost-effective trade between Europe and Asia. The United States and Canada control the Northwestern Passage, while Russia and China are greatly advantaged in the Northeastern Passage. The market of icebreakers – the type of ship needed to navigate the Arctic’s icy and treacherous seas – is currently dominated by Russia, with other countries now trying to catch up. Â
Coveted resources like gas and oil, but also those needed in the green energy transition like lithium and scandium, lie untapped in the deep sea. Energy companies are keen to explore these depths, but the collective lack of understanding about ecosystems buried under permafrost for thousands of years gives some governments pause, and the European Union has called for a global moratorium on deep-sea mining pending more research. Meanwhile, above the seas, countries are racing to propel satellites into space to provide broadband connection to both civilian and military vessels. Â
In the face of Russian militarization of the region post-Ukraine war, European allies are stepping up defense efforts – but with United States President Donald Trump in the White House, NATO’s position has never been less secure. The power balance in the Arctic in the coming decades will be shaped by the alliances, both new and old, being forged and tested today.   Â
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